Monthly Archives: July 2011

24 Jul

Internet Frequency in the Caucasus – Awareness, Adoption, and Use

I’ve been working on a project recently looking at lack of awareness of the Internet.  In the U.S. we take for granted that most people know what the Internet is and have a general sense of what it can do, even if they don’t use it themselves. However, even in the U.S., there were (and still are) people that don’t know what the Internet is.

In the Caucasus, not knowing what “the Internet” implies is not uncommon in some places – 1% of Armenians, 22% of Azerbaijanis, and 7% of Georgians report that they don’t know what “the Internet” is (in 2010).

Who are these people? They’re older, they’re rural, they have less education, and they’re poorer.

And, generally, people that are not aware of what “the Internet” is are highly unlikely to ever use the Internet.

The next step is ever using the Internet. In Armenia, two-thirds of citizens have never used the Internet, a little over half (55%) of Azerbaijanis have never used it, and 61% of Georgians have never used it (in 2010).

Again, the people that are not using tend to be older, more rural, less educated, and poorer.

Finally, the last Internet hurdle is frequent use. Many Caucasus “Internet users” are getting online less than once a month. Certainly these infrequent users are not fully benefiting from Internet use. 10% of Armenians, 11% of Azerbaijanis, and 11% of Georgians are online quite infrequently.

So while official statistics from the ITU say that 37% of Armenians, 36% of Azerbaijanis, and 27% of Georgians are online because they define “Internet user” as going online once or more ever, I’d argue that this is adoption, and we should really be discussing frequent users (at least weekly). In that case, 21% of Armenians, 9% of Azerbaijanis, and 18% of Georgians are fully benefiting from Internet use.

Who are those frequent users? They’re generally urban (although in Armenia and to some degree Georgia, there are some rural frequent users, mostly via mobile Internet), better educated, younger, and wealthier.

At least we can see that there has been an increase in awareness, use, and frequent use since 2009. In 2009 71% of Armenians, 62% of Azerbaijanis, and 65% of Georgians knew what the Internet was, and 15% of Armenians, 14% of Azerbaijanis, and 17% of Georgians had ever used it. Frequent users in 2009 were 8% of Armenians, 6% of Azerbaijanis, and 10% of Georgians.
 

Interenetfreq

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08 Jul

Central Asian Women

While CRRC is known for its Caucasus Barometer, in Winter 2011, a Central Asian survey was conducted to look at access to justice in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. (Here are the data files and methodological notes.)

These analyses are only on the issues related to women in Central Asia. There is a lot more in this dataset.

Central Asian women

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07 Jul

Some brief insights into the state of women in Armenia

With recent reports about sex ratio imbalance in Armenia, a quick analysis of the Caucasus Barometer brings insight into the state of women in Armenia.

Armenians certainly prefer boys, especially in rural areas. But even in regional cities and Yerevan, nearly half of Armenians state a preference for a boy.

Moreover, Armenians (and Azerbaijanis and Georgians) raise their boys and girls differently, as shown in the slide.

And once a woman has grown up, few Armenians are comfortable with her living apart from her family if she is unmarried. There is slightly greatly acceptance of this idea among capital females though. (And in the near future, I’ll look at this vis-a-vis age!)

Sex before marriage is widely viewed as unacceptable in Armenia, but again capital females are slightly more tolerance of the idea. (And again, I need to look at this vis-a-vis age.)

However, living together before marriage has SOME acceptance amongst Yerevantsis, but overall the practice is viewed as unacceptable.

So all-in-all, do Armenians think that men or women have a better life? Interestingly, the results are mixed and there aren’t great regional or gender differences.

Gender

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06 Jul

Migration Crisis in the Caucasus

Is there a “migration crisis” in the Caucasus?

Maybe! There seems to be an increase in interest in migration in Armenia and in Azerbaijan and Georgia, while interest is high, it remains relatively stable.

Based on the Caucasus Barometer, 40% of Georgians, half of Azerbaijanis, and 59% of Armenians are interested in temporary migration

(This is a 9% increase in Armenia since 2008, but no such change in Azerbaijan or Georgia, although in 2009, all 3 Caucasus states saw a decrease in interest in temporary migration.)

Furthermore, 7% of Georgians, 17% of Azerbaijanis, and 26% of Armenians are interested in permanent migration.

(These rates in Azerbaijan and Georgia have remained somewhat stable, while Armenia has seen a 10% increase between 2009 and 2010).

So who are these people that want to leave?

Certainly in Armenia there is a trend toward desire to migrate.

Two-thirds of Yerevan residents are interested in temporary migration, regardless of gender. Nearly 60% of urban city and rural Armenians are interested as well. These are increases from 2008 and 2009 when about half of all Armenians wanted to temporarily migrate.

In Armenia, there are not major regional or gender differences in interest to migrate permanently.

In Azerbaijan, interest in migration varies year-to-year.

In Azerbaijan, interest in temporary migration is primarily a male interest, and rural females are the least likely to be interested in temporary migration.

Permanent migration is less popular in Azerbaijan, again especially amongst rural females.

In Georgia as well, interest in migration changes year-to-year, but overall interest in permanent migration is quite low.

Migration

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02 Jul

Internet Tripled, Personal Computer Ownership Doubled last year in Armenia

My primary research interest is technology adoption and use, especially looking at digital divides (ownership and use patterns based on socioeconomic differences).

I’ve been studying these divides and patterns in Armenia for a long time. 2010 was a very exciting year for me (and Armenia!) because after many years of low adoption rates for personal computers and Internet, we saw some big jumps! Internet penetration tripled and personal computer ownership doubled between 2009 and 2010. Analysis and thoughts are below.

INTERNET
After years of single-digit Internet penetration, in 2010, Internet penetration in Armenia tripled from nearly 6% in 2009 to 19% in 2010, based on the Caucasus Barometer.

Home Internet Adoption in Armenia

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ITU 2.00% 2.90% 4.21% 4.41% 5.86% 5.86% n/a
CB n/a n/a n/a 4.30% 7.00% 5.80% 19.30%

(ITU is the UN International Telecommunications Union, CB is Caucasus Barometer.)

Why did this happen in 2010? Probably because of mobile Internet. According to the Caucasus Barometer, 22% of Armenians have Internet access via their mobile phones (although the ITU says trhat only 5.18% of Armenians in 2010 had mobile Internet), most of them beginning using this service in 2009 or 2010. The mobile phone companies have a variety of options for mobile Internet, some of which are at low prices. 3 common ways that Armenians use mobile Internet are: 1) Accessing the Internet through a phone that has the ability to access the Internet, such as a “smartphone” 2) Tethering, a method to share the Internet connection on a mobile phone with a personal computer through a USB cable or a Bluetooth connection and 3) USB sticks that are plugged into a PC’s USB port and pick up a cellular signal.
And who uses mobile Internet in Armenia? Contrary to expectations that early adopters of technology are young, rich, educated urbanites, Armenians adopting mobile Internet are regionally-diverse: 37% are adopters are Yerevantsis, 29% are regional city dwellers, and 35% are rural villagers. They’re equally men and women. They’re young, but they are not teenagers. The average age of a mobile Internet adopter is 41. They’re better off economically than the average Armenian, but not extremely wealthy, this is all according to analysis of the Caucasus Barometer.

PERSONAL COMPUTERS
Another major event of 2010 is that Armenians owning personal computers has nearly doubled from 15% in 2009 to 27% in 2010.

Home PC Adoption in Armenia

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ITU 6.77% 8.32% 10.23% 15.40% n/a
CB 10.80% 11.40% 14.70% 14.70% 26.70%

Why did this happen in 2010 after years of slow growth? Possibly because of the ComputerforAll.am program has lowered the cost of computers for some Armenians. This program that allows individuals to rent computers at a subsidized low cost. It was launched in September 2009. According to Armenpress, in early 2011, over 17,000 computers have been rented through the program. Within the program, laptops rent for between 11,400-18,300AMD per month and desktops for 11,200AMD per month.

According to the official website of the program: “The use of computers and the Internet access to each country’s economic development incentives are the most important and also have an important significance for the formation of information society. “Computers for All” program aims to significantly increase the level of use of computers in Armenia, offering software packages equipped with modern computers and buy them for the current credit solutions.”

The stated goals of the program are:
– expand the distribution of computer software packages in Armenia, equipped with accessible, but modern and reliable computers, creating an opportunity to buy in Yerevan, as well as regional residents,
– contribute to Armenia’s ICT sector by promoting the development of computer technology and software development markets development,
– prepare computer literate personnel, promoting the education of Armenian issues.
– to promote the spread of the Internet, increasing the number of users of electronic services and provide a basis for the introduction of government services, business sector, educational institutions within the framework, thereby contributing to the formation of information society in Armenia, and
– encourage the use of licensed software.
– And in a press conference, an involved party said… “The aim of the program is to provide 30 percent of Armenian residents with home computers” (Armenia Now 2009 HP article)

So did the ComputerforAll program meet its goals?

Has the Computer for All program met its goal of providing 30% of Armenian residents with PCs?

YES, but they said in 2009 that only 5% of Armenians had personal computers and that was not true. Also, since there was already an increase in adoption of personal computers, we cannot say that the ComputerforAll program was the only reason for more adoption of personal computers.

Has the Computer for All program met its goal of increasing Internet adoption?

YES – but could have been due to the mobile Internet increase.

Has the Computer for All program met its goal of expanding computers to Yerevan Armenians?
YES, in 2009, 33% of Yerevantsis had personal computers and in 2010 48% did. (But we cannot know if the increase was caused by the program.)

Has the Computer for All program met its goal of expanding computers to rural Armenians? YES – in 2009, 5% of rural Armenians had personal computers and in 2010, 12.5% of rural Armenians had personal computers. (But we cannot know if the increase was caused by the program.)

Has the Computer for All program met its goals of increasing computer literacy? NO – according to the Caucasus Barometer, self-reported computer skill has not increased from 2007 to 2010, with nearly two-thirds of Armenians reporting no skill with computers.

And according to the Caucasus Barometer, 24.8% of PC owners bought their latest computer in 2009 and 24.2% bought their latest computer in 2010, both possibly within the government subsidy program. Thus, although this program obviously does provide some computers to some individuals, it is still prohibitively expensive for most Armenians. Despite the government subsidy program, personal computers are still only available to the wealthier in Armenian society.

02 Jul

Feelings about the Direction Country is Headed in the Caucasus

How do Armenians, Azerbaijanis, and Georgians feel about the direction in which their countries are headed?

The 2010 Caucasus Barometer tells us that opinions on this are mixed.

Few people in any of the three countries think that their country is definitely headed in the right direction (3% Armenia, 11% Azerbaijan, 11% Georgia), although some think that their countries are headed somewhat in the right direction (15% Armenia, 27% Azerbaijan, 33% Georgia).

In Armenia, over a third (37%) feel that their country is headed in the wrong direction. Only 10 percent of Azerbaijanis feel this way though and 18 percent of Georgians.

Interestingly, many people aren’t sure. Nearly 20 percent of Azerbaijanis (19%) and Georgians (18%) say that they don’t know what direction their countries are headed in. Only 15 percent of Armenians aren’t sure.

Direction

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02 Jul

Political Institutional Trust in Armenia

This is a study that I did with the 2008 (collected in fall) Caucasus Barometer. As a warning, it is pretty stats-heavy. If you’re going to cite this paper, please use this citation:

Pearce, K.E. (2010). Political trust in the post-coup attempt Republic of Armenia. Demokratizatsiya, 19, 58-83.

Abstract:
This paper presents a model of institutional political trust in Armenia after a coup attempt. The model of political trust was created using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. Results indicated strong support for a three-factor model with civil society, elected government and non-elected government as factors.

demokratz2010

02 Jul

Approval of Others in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

This analysis was conducted on the 2007 Caucasus Barometer on questions dealing with approval of being friends with, doing business with, and marrying other nationalities/ethnic groups. (I apologize that this is more “statistics-y” than other posts. I did this analysis for a statistics class assignment a few years ago but thought that people might be interested so I posted it as is.)

approvalAMAZGE

02 Jul

Treatment of Citizens in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

According to the 2010 Caucasus Barometer, people in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have strong opinions about how their governments treat citizens.

Three-quarters of Armenians (74%) do not believe that the Armenian government treats its citizens fairly (half strongly believe this and half somewhat believe this).

Half of Azerbaijanis and 43 percent of Georgians think that their government doesn’t treat people fairly.

Interestingly, few are completely sure that their governments treat people fairly, 4 percent in Armenia and 9 percent in Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Fairlygovernment

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02 Jul

Rule of Law in the Caucasus

People in the Caucasus think that their court systems favor some people over others, according to the 2010 Caucasus Barometer.

Over half of Armenians (54%) and Azerbaijanis (57%) believe that this, and 43 percent of Georgians do.

And while those that say that they don’t know are high in each country (10% of Armenians, 18% of Azerbaijanis, and 27% of Georgians), those that are sure and certain that there is favorship.

Why don’t Armenians, Azerbaijanis, and Georgians think that their court systems are fair?

One reason may be judges. While most people in the Caucasus do not trust judges, there are many that are neutral or unsure.

Moreover, many believe that the court systems are under the influence of the government. Very few people in any of the three countries think that the court systems are independent.

Furthermore, many also believe that high officials are not publish when they break the law.

Ruleoflawjudicial

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